10%

1.5

The biggest small number

By United Nations Development Programme

November 17^th, 2021

The UN Climate Conference – COP26 – has wrapped up in Scotland, with the Glasgow Climate Pact. It has been described by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as an important step, “but not enough”.

1.5

“We must accelerate climate action to keep alive the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees,” he said.

1.5 is the biggest small number of our lifetime.

1.5

1.5

Our hopes for an equitable, prosperous and sustainable future rest on it. Scientific consensus says we cannot have a healthy planet with a temperature increase higher than 1.5°C (2.7°F), which would still mean rising sea levels and more frequent and intense extreme weather, but these would be far less than the risks at 2°C (3.6°F).

We are already at 1.1°C (2.2°F).

In an effort to protect coastal regions, communities plant mangroves in Timor-Leste. Photo: UNDP Timor-Leste/Yuichi Ishida

While progress was made on important issues, including adaptation finance, global goals on adaptation, gender, and the Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Platform, COP26 came up short.

Prior to the meeting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a stark warning: take bold action now, or lock in an even more dangerous future.

It found that every fraction of a degree is important.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP26) was held at the SEC Centre in Glasgow, Scotland from 31 October to 13 November 2021. Photo: Shutterstock

The UN Environment Programme says if we keep going on this path, temperatures will rise to 2.4°C (4.3°F) by the end of the century.

These were the dire numbers facing climate negotiators as they approached the Glasgow meeting.

It was a go big or go home moment. And many leaders came with renewed commitments to increase their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that will help the world achieve the Paris Agreement goals.

Protesters demanding action by world leaders at COP26, to address climate change, took to the streets in major cities across the world. Photo: Shutterstock

UNDP’s Climate Promise partners with over 80 percent of all developing countries as they work towards their NDCs. With 35 UN, civil society and financial partners, we are seeing an impact in climate adaptation, mitigation, nature and forests, young people and gender.

A new UNDP report, The State of Climate Ambition, released in the lead up to the negotiations, revealed that vulnerable nations are leading on ambition. Ninety three percent of least developed and small island countries haver plans to ratchet up their NDCs, of which 86 percent intend to increase mitigation targets.

1.5

1.5

Over the last two years, the engagement through UNDP’s Climate Promise has demonstrated that the most vulnerable countries, often those with the least responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, have shown leadership and commitment.

Developed countries had promised US$100 billion every year by 2020. This target has yet to be met, and more recent estimates from UNEP show the costs are now even higher.

Communities in Madagascar work to plant hearty shrubs in an effort to restore sand dunes and protect biodiversity. Photo: UNDP Madagascar

UNDP is also connecting citizen voices with decision makers.

In partnership with the G20 Presidency, UNDP and the University of Oxford published the world’s largest survey of public opinion on climate change in G20 countries.

The ‘G20 Peoples' Climate Vote’ polled over 689,000 people, including over 302,000 under the age of 18.

Building on a first round of polling released earlier this year, it provides fresh insight into how under-18s support climate policies.

1.5

1.5

1.5

“This new People’s Climate Vote shows that, on average, 70 percent of young people in G20 countries believe that we are in a global climate emergency. Given that they are about to inherit this climate emergency, young people are sending a message to global leaders that is loud and clear: they want climate action now.” – UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner

“Dear World Leaders” has given citizens a direct pipeline to decision makers. Responses have come from all over the world from all ages, showing they expect and demand radical change.

“Get on with your job of ensuring the future for our children and our grandchildren. You will be on the wrong side of history. You are on the wrong side of history.” – Aldo, Switzerland

A recent poll shows that 70 percent of young people in G20 countries believe that we are in a global climate emergency. Photo: Shutterstock

UNDP’s new fossil fuels subsidies report showed that for every dollar pledged to tackle the climate crisis for the world’s poor, four dollars are spent on fossil fuel subsidies that are deepening the crisis.

1.5

1.5

Our viral media campaign, Don’t Choose Extinction, advocates for switching the billions of dollars spent on fossil fuels over to clean energy and social programmes that foster equality.

For the first time, fossil fuels were mentioned in the COP decision, although an 11th hour debate weakened the text.

The agreement also requests countries, especially high emitters, to strengthen their 2030 targets by the end of 2022.

1.5

1.5

In Glasgow, the UNDP Administrator joined the launch of the second phase of the Climate Promise, which aims to build on the progress made at COP26 and help countries turn NDCs into action.

As the pact was signed, Mr Steiner said the 1.5C goal was “still alive.”

“The road to COP27 begins now and it is vital that we accelerate the momentum provided by COP26. With 1.5 degrees remaining barely within reach, COP26 must be a springboard for further commitments from countries in the immediate future. After Glasgow, no longer can anyone be under any illusion. Hope remains yet our window to protect people and planet is closing by each day that passes.”

1.5

1.5

1.5

There are many reasons to be hopeful. From pension fund divestment from fossil fuels, to countries phasing out coal power, to the energy that continues to be maintained by young people, Indigenous communities and other citizens demanding change, we are seeing a global shift unlike anything that has come before.

Mr Guterres had a message for these climate champions.

“I know you are disappointed. But the path of progress is not always a straight line. Sometimes there are detours. Sometimes there are ditches. But I know we can get there. We are in the fight of our lives, and this fight must be won. Never give up. Never retreat. Keep pushing forward.”

© 2026 United Nations Development Programme

À la recherche d’un équilibre

Trois communautés côtières mexicaines œuvrent en faveur d’un tourisme durable et communautaire

Rutas hacia el equilibrio

Un recorrido por tres costas mexicanas que avanzan hacia un turismo sostenible y comunitario

On the road to balance

Tour three Mexican coastal communities working towards sustainable, community-based tourism

Tras casi tres años de guerra, el pueblo del Sudán sigue con la esperanza de reconstruir su vida

À bientôt 3 ans de guerre, le peuple soudanais a hâte de se reconstruire

As the war approaches the 3-year mark, Sudan's people can't wait to rebuild their lives

Story Told With

Start publishing stories like this

Loading, please hold on.